Underestimating bin Laden

Instapundit is taking what seems to be (an albeit predictable) line on the bin Laden 'truce' offer to European nations. It is the line most of the media is taking: bin Laden's attempt to split the coalition against terror has failed.

Really? Not a few weeks back, many pundits were attacking the Spanish voters for 'giving in to terror'. I suspect that bin Laden knows full well that the elected heads of European states will dismiss his offer with the contempt it deserves. I wonder, however about how well he reads the electorates of Europe and the wells of possible support in the Arab world.

This 'truce' offer is more likely intended to do two things:
a) Set a marker in the minds of many Europeans that a vote against the allies of the US might make them safer
b) Suggest to the Arab world that he is being reasonable and fair

As for his chances of success: I think the Spanish election-shock was due more to the Aznar Government's response to the Madrid bombings and not 'giving in to terror' whilst the latter intent may be much more successful, particularly given the response in the Middle East to Bush's backing of Ariel Sharon's plan for Gaza and the West Bank.

Don't underestimate the savvy of bin Laden. So far he has shown not only an ability to evade capture, but play politics too. This recent statement is no different.